NZDUSD has shifted risk back to downside after a rebound lost steam and fell from 0.7235 to dip below the key 0.7200 level. The crossover of the shorter-period with the longer-period moving average gave a bearish signal. Yesterday the 20 SMA fell below the 50 SMA on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, RSI is in bearish territory below 50.
A daily close below 0.7200 would increase downside pressure and strengthen the bearish case. The market has been trading above this key level since June. An extension lower from this area would open the way towards a resistance-turned-support level at 0.7057. Breaking below the key psychological 0.7000 level would target the multi-month trough at 0.6817 (May 11 low).
Prices need to rise back above the 0.7235 high to shift the focus back to the upside towards the key 0.7300 level. Only a move above 0.7375 would retrace 50% of the downtrend from the 0.7557 peak (July 27) and indicate that near-term downward pressure has eased. A sustained break above resistance at 0.7458 could see a re-test of 0.7557 and change the short-term trend to bullish.
