Germany’s Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) lowered 2021 GDP forecasts to 3.1%, as Germany remained “firmly in the grip of the coronavirus pandemic”. GDP is expected to contract -2% in Q1 as a result of the renewed rise in infection rates in Autumn 2020, and the restrictions currently in place. GDP is expected to grow 4.1% in 2022. Economic output is likely to return to its pre-crisis level at the turn of the year 2021/2022. Eurozone GDP is forecast to grow 4.1% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022.
“The greatest risk to the German economy is posed by a potential third wave of infections, especially if it were to lead to restrictions or even plant closures in industry,” says council member Volker Wieland.
“For Germany to reach the EU target of vaccinating 70% of the population by the end of September 2021, the current number of daily vaccinations in vaccination centers must be increased by 50%. In addition, this would require general practitioners and specialists to be involved in the vaccination,” states council member Veronika Grimm.
