AUD/USD’s up trend resumed last week by break through 0.7819 and hit as high as 0.7876. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6991 to 0.7819 from 0.7563 at 0.8075. We’d pay attention to the reaction to 0.8135 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 0.7730 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.
In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structure resistance. Decisive break there will rise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.
