GBP/JPY rose further to as high as 142.23 last week but retreated ahead of 142.71 resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 140.31 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 136.96 support. However, decisive break of 142.71 will resume whole rise from 123.94. Next target is 147.95 resistance.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 143.73) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).
