AUDUSD has been in a strong bullish rally since March 2020, sending the price to a new 34-month high of 0.7827 on Wednesday.
The MACD oscillator is extending its upside move above its trigger line in the positive region, however, the RSI is turning south in the overbought area, suggesting a downside pullback in the price.
An advance above the multi-month high of 0.7827 could send the pair towards the 0.7923 resistance, taken from the peak on March 2018. Clearing this region, the high from January 2018 at 0.8132 could next attract investors’ attention.
On the other side, a bearish retracement could meet the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 0.7620 ahead of the 40-day SMA at 0.7475. If selling interest persists, support could come from the 0.7340 level and then from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 0.5506 to 0.7827 at 0.7270. Even lower, the 200-day SMA around the 0.7000 psychological mark could act as a significant barrier to the bears.
Overall, in the long-term picture, AUDUSD continues to follow an uptrend, keeping sentiment positive. A decisive close below the 200-day SMA may shift the outlook to neutral.
