GBP/JPY – 141.80
Trend: Near term down
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Despite rebounding to 143.20, the subsequent retreat suggests the rebound from 141.25 (Friday’s low) has possibly ended there and retest of said support cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to 140.80-85 (1.618 times projection of 147.75-144.05 measuring from 146.80) but near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 140.50 and reckon psychological support at 140.00 would hold from here.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 142.10-20 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 142.70-80 and price should falter well below said resistance at 143.20, bring retreat later. Only a break of said this week’s high would suggest a temporary low has been formed at 141.25, bring retracement of recent decline to 144.00 (previous support turned resistance), however, reckon upside would be limited to 144.45-50 and 144.70 should hold, price should falter well below strong resistance at 145.30. As near term outlook is mixed, would be prudent to stand aside for now.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.
