GBP/JPY edged higher to 140.70 last week but upside momentum has been very unconvincing. Still, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 138.23 support holds. Current rebound from 133.03 would target a test on 142.71 high. On the downside, however, break of 138.23 will argue that the pattern from 142.71 is starting another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 134.40 support and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 143.38) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).
