- Canada’s economy added 62k jobs in November, a slowdown from the 84k created in October, but better than the median consensus estimate of 20k. All of the gains were in full time employment (+99.4k), as part-time employment fell 37.4k.
- The unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in November, as the participation rate edged lower by 0.1 percentage points and the labour force shrank by -19.5k.
- Job gains were concentrated in goods sectors (up 44.2k), with construction adding 26.3k, and agriculture and natural resources together kicking in an additional 18.2k. Services added a respectable 17.9k jobs, with relatively strong growth in some sectors (wholesale and retail trade adding 27.1k, transportation and warehousing adding 20.3k, and finance insurance, real estate, rental and leasing adding 15.2k). This was offset by losses in healthcare and social assistance (-31.5k), information, culture and recreation (-62.0k), and major losses within accommodation and food services (-256k).
- Employment rose in six of 10 provinces, including Ontario (+36.6k), B.C (+23.9k) and all four Atlantic provinces (+17.5k). Jobs were shed in Quebec (-50.8k) and the Prairies (-31.7k), with Manitoba seeing the steepest losses (-18.1k)
Key Implications
- Canada’s labour market recovery continued in November, but the impact of the resurgence in COVID-19 certainly played a role in slowing its recovery. The steep drop in jobs in high-contact service industries and Prairie provinces bears this out. This may just be the beginning. The survey reference week was relatively early in the month (November 8th through 14th), prior to Ontario’s restrictions on Peel and Toronto.
- Unfortunately, the labour market picture appears likely to deteriorate further in December. The rapid increase in caseloads has continued, and while provinces such as B.C. and Alberta have taken a softer touch to restrictions on high-touch industries, health concerns are likely to weaken activity in these provinces as well.
- As this month’s data showed, the second wave of the virus is weighing more heavily on some sectors compared to others. Fiscal supports such as expanded employment insurance, the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy and the newly minted Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy will help ease the burden on worker and businesses in those areas of the economy. But this winter won’t be easy. The make-up of Canada’s labour market is likely to look different coming out of this pandemic than it did going in.
