AUDUSD seems to have glided into a sideways market below the stable Ichimoku cloud after a gradual withdrawal from the 25-month top of 0.7413. The relatively flattened 50-and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), and the pause in the decline of the Ichimoku lines, both back the stalled picture in the aussie.
The short-term oscillators also reflect the consolidation in price as they display conflicting signals in directional momentum. The MACD, a bit underneath its zero mark, is barely below its red signal line, while the RSI points up in the negative region. Yet, the Stochastic oscillator maintains a negative demeanour with its %K line dipping into oversold territory.
To the downside, initial constraints may arise from the floor of the horizontal structure at 0.7005. Breaking below this key border, the pair may encounter limitations from the 0.6963 level, that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 0.5506 to 0.7413, and the 0.6921 low. Should steeper declines unfold, the critical support trench of 0.6749 – 0.6806, which also encompasses the 200-day SMA, may try to dismiss further loss of ground initially hitting the 38.2% Fibo of 0.6685.
If buyers resurface and steer above the red Tenkan-sen line at 0.7086, early resistance may come from the neighbouring 100-day SMA – merged with the flat blue Kijun-sen – at 0.7119. Pushing higher, the 50-day SMA at 0.7190 and the cloud’s ceiling at 0.7209 may impede the pair from testing the roof of the consolidation at 0.7242. However, successfully climbing above it may meet the 0.7344 obstacle before revisiting the multi-year top of 0.7413. Should the bullish picture resume, the section of highs of 0.7452 to 0.7483 may next obstruct further appreciation in the pair.
Summarizing, AUDUSD seems to be ranging in the short-term timeframe. A neutral-to-bullish bias remains alive above 0.7005, while a break below could put pressure on the positive structure.
