GBPUSD appears to have stalled its thrust above the Ichimoku cloud, as the pair pulls back from the 1.3176 level towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The horizontal 50-day SMA and the flattening Ichimoku lines promote further ranging in the pair.
The short-term oscillators reaffirm diminishing positive momentum. The MACD is slightly in the positive region and marginally above its red trigger line, while the RSI is slipping towards its neutral 50 mark. Moreover, the declining stochastic lines are suggesting added waning in the pair. Nonetheless, the relatively intact bullish tone of the 50- and 100-day SMAs and the advancing demeanour of the 100-day SMA, keep the neutral-to-bullish bias alive.
Immediately limiting downside moves is the red Tenkan-sen line, which has merged with the 50-day SMA around 1.3016, and the cloud slightly underneath. Dipping beneath the cloud, the blue Kijun-sen line at 1.2924 may provide some friction ahead of the 100-day SMA at the 1.2862 low. Steeper declines may then be challenged by the stable 200-day SMA at 1.2698 and the adjacent support section of 1.2643 – 1.2674. Sinking past these vital obstacles may push the price towards the 1.2510 and 1.2479 lows in mid-July.
If buyers re-emerge and push off the 50-day SMA at 1.3016, initial resistance may occur at the 1.3176 high. Restoring the recent climb may then see the pair hit the 1.3318 barrier. Gaining further ground may test the 8½-month peak of 1.3481 and the 19-month top of 1.3514 overhead.
Summarizing, GBPUSD maintains a neutral-to-bullish bias with chances that the outlook may improve further, as long as the pair holds above the fixed 200-day SMA.
