Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1703; (P) 1.1763 (R1) 1.1813; More…
Break of 1.1747 indicates resumption of pull back from 1.1908 short term top. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But break of 1.1908 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen in near term. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1606 would bring deeper pull back to 61.8% retracement at 1.1420.
In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it’s developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we’ll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.
