AUD/USD – 0.7928
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sold at 0.8030, Target: 0.7880, Stop: 0.7985
Position: – Short at 0.8030
Target: – 0.7880
Stop: – 0.7985
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 0.8030, Target: 0.7880, Stop: 0.7985
Position: – Short at 0.8030
Target: – 0.7880
Stop:- 0.7985
Aussie’s recovery after falling to 0.7891 has retained our view that consolidation above this level would be seen, however, as long as resistance at 0.7980 holds, mild downside bias remains for another retreat, below said support at 0.7891 would add credence to our view that wave iii top is possibly formed at 0.8066, bring correction in wave iv to 0.7875-80 (previous support) but break there is needed to retain bearishness, bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.7839 (previous resistance tuned support), however, downside should be limited to 0.7786 and price should stay well above wave i top at 0.7712.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.8030. A sustained breach above said resistance at 0.7980 would abort and suggest low is possibly formed, bring a stronger rebound to 0.8000, then towards 0.8043 resistance, break there would signal the pullback from 0.8066 top has ended instead, bring retest of this level first, then 0.8100 and possibly 0.8140-50. We are keeping our latest bullish count that recent impulsive waves is unfolding as (1 2, (i)(ii), i ii) and may extend headway to aforesaid upside targets.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
