WTI crude oil futures have been in a tight symmetrical triangle over the last week, failing to decline further in the short-term. The price found strong resistance around the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) and the minor descending line. The RSI indicator is pointing slightly up in the negative territory, while the MACD is increasing above the trigger line, both suggesting an upside penetration of the pattern.
Should the pair stretch north, the 40-period SMA at 37.74 could provide immediate resistance before the commodity touches the 38.43 barrier. A step higher could bring the bullish sentiment back into play, sending the price probably towards the 40.15 inside swing low from September 3.
On the flip side, the 36.64 support and the three-month low of 36.11 may halt downside movements. If traders continue to sell the oil, the price could fall until the 34.45 mark, achieved on June 12.
In the short-term picture, WTI has been trading bearish in the past three weeks after the close below the 42.36 barrier, with the bearish cross between the negatively sloped 20- and 40-period SMAs to the 200-period SMA. Still, if the price manages to cross above the 200-period SMA around 41.30 the bearish outlook could switch into a neutral-to-bullish one.
To sum up, the market is expected to hold neutral in the very short-term and bearish in the short-term.
