EUR/CHF rose to as high as 1.1537 last week and met 200% projection of 1.0652 to 1.0986 from 1.0830 at 1.1498. A short term top should be formed there on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1349) and below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0830 to 1.1537 at 1.1267 and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1537 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we’d expect more consolidation first, with risk of another fall.
In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1198 key resistance confirms resumption of the long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015. In this case, EUR/CHF would eventually head back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1087 resistance turned support holds.
