Weekly
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 5 Sep 2016
- Trend bias: Down
Daily
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 8 Sep 2016
- Trend bias: Down
Although aussie found support at 0.7543 late last week and recovered, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7642) would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support at 0.7543 would extend the fall from 0.7741 top for retracement of recent upmove to support at 0.7512 which is likely to limit downside and bring another rebound later. A daily close above 0.7665-70 would suggest low is formed, bring test of resistance at 0.7700 but recent high at 0.7741 should hold, only a break of this level would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to previous chart resistance at 0.7778. Looking ahead, a break above there is needed to retain bullishness and signal early erratic upmove from 0.6827 (2016 low) has resumed for retest of 0.7835 (2016 high) first.
On the downside, below said last week’s low at 0.7543 would extend the fall from 0.7741 top for retracement of recent upmove to support at 0.7512, however, reckon 0.7490-00 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A daily close below the upper Kumo (now at 0.7467) would abort and suggest top is formed instead, bring weakness to 0.7390-00 and possibly towards 0.7350 but reckon 0.7300-10 would remain intact, bring rebound later.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.7515 for 0.7715 with stop below 0.7415.
On the weekly chart, assize’s retreat from 0.7741 suggests minor top has been formed there and consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside risk remains for test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7515), however, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7468) would hold and bring another rise later, above 0.7700 would bring retest of 0.7741 but break there is needed to extend the rebound from 0.7158 towards resistance at 0.7778, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited and price should falter below 2016 high at 0.7835. Looking ahead, only above this level would suggest an upside break of recent established broad range has occurred, bring further subsequent rise towards 0.7900.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 0.7512-15 (indicated minor support and current level of the Tenkan-Sen) cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7468) would limit downside and bring another rise. A weekly close below the Kijun-Sen would suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness to 0.7400, break there would add credence to this view, bring subsequent weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 0.7331) but break of 0.7285-90 support is needed to signal the rebound from 0.7158 has ended and bring further decline to 0.7200-10, then towards strong support area at 0.7145-58.
