Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.35 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.25 %, Hang Seng rose 0.15 %, ASX 200 lost 0.20 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1267 (-0.35 %), Silver at $16.65 (+0.15 %), WTI Oil at $48.94 (-0.20 %), Brent Oil at $51.90 (-0.20 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.23, UK 10-year yield at 1.15, German 10-year yield
News & Data:
- Australia Retail Sales m/m 0.3 % vs 0.2 % expected
- Australia Retail Sales y/y 1.5 % vs 1.2 % expected
- Japan Average Cash Earnings -0.4 % vs 0.6 % expected
- Strong U.S. jobs report seen in July; wages likely rose – RTRS
- Oil prices dip on high OPEC supplies, rising U.S. production – RTRS
- Australia’s central bank upbeat on economy as consumers splurge – RTRS
- Asia stocks edge higher, dollar languishes on U.S. politics, mixed data – RTRS
Markets Update:
The US Dollar remains weak ahead of today’s NFP release. EUR/USD is consolidating around the 1.19 level, while USD/JPY is struggling to keep itself above 110. It is likely that volatility will remain relatively low ahead of the important data release at 13:30 London time.
The market is expecting a 183k NFP figure and a 0.1 % decline of the unemployment rate to 4.3 %. Should the data exceed expectations, the Dollar should be able to recover a bit. EUR/USD is likely to fall below 1.18 and GBP/USD back to 1.30 in such a scenario. Disappointing data would put the weak Dollar under additional pressure. EUR/USD would likely break above 1.20 in that case, while USD/JPY would decline below 110.
AUD/USD consolidated in a 0.7935-75 range overnight. While the Aussie Dollar has lost some momentum, it still remains well bid and should test 0.80 resistance soon. NZD/USD was able to bounce off 0.7390 support and recovered to 0.7450 in Asia.
Upcoming Events:
- 13:30 BST – US NFP
- 13:30 BST – US Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Employment Change
- 15:00 BST – Canadian Ivey PMI
