GBP/JPY – 146.35
Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Bought at 145.55, Target: 147.55, Stop: 144.95
Position: – Long at 145.55
Target: – 147.55
Stop: – 144.95
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 145.55, Target: 147.55, Stop: 145.35
Position: – Long at 145.55
Target: – 147.55
Stop:- 145.35
Yesterday’s breach of resistance at 146.55 adds credence to our bullish view that the pullback from 147.75 has ended at 144.05 and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 147.20-25, then towards said resistance, however, break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed for headway towards previous chart resistance at 148.45 (2016 high) which is likely to hold from here.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 145.55 and would exit on such rise. Below said support at 145.50 would defer and risk test of support at 144.85 but only break there would abort and prolong consolidation, risk weakness to 144.45-50, however, said support at 144.05 would hold from here, bring recovery later. A break of said support at 144.05 would add credence to our view that a temporary top has been formed at 147.75 earlier last month, bring retracement of recent upmove to 143.50, then towards support at 143.30.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.
