EURUSD has been charting lower lows and lower highs after peaking at 1.1421 and near a long-term ascending trendline stretched from the 2019 bottom, signaling that the recent bearish wave in the four-hour chart may continue.
The weakening RSI, which has crossed below its 50 neutral mark, and the fact that the price has slipped below the middle Bollinger band (20-period simple moving average), is also endorsing the negative view.
Yet, whether the bears can dominate may depend on the short-term supportive trendline drawn from May’s troughs. A clear breach of that line would shift full attention towards last week’s low of 1.1167, where any violation could see the retest of the 200-period SMA around 1.1100. In a short distance the 50% Fibonacci of the upleg from 1.0726 to 1.1421, at 1.1073, could be another important support to watch.
In the event the price bounces on the trendline and closes above the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.1257 and the middle Bollinger band, the bulls could lead towards the 1.1350 resistance region. Higher, the 1.1421 top could attempt to stop the rally from reaching the long-term ascending trendline.
Summarizing, EURUSD is holding a bearish short-term bias, with the confirmation potentially coming below the green supportive trendline.
