Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.10 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.45 %, Hang Seng rallied 0.60 %, ASX 200 rose 0.40 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1267 (-0.05 %), Silver at $16.70 (+0.05 %), WTI Oil at $49.90 (+0.40 %), Brent Oil at $52.40 (+0.35 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.28, UK 10 year yield at 1.21, German 10 year yield at 0.54
News & Data:
- China Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 51.6 expected
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.5 vs 54.9 previous
- New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence 19.4 vs 24.8 previous
- Australia Private Sector Credit 0.6 % vs 0.4 % expected
- Australia HIA New Home Sales -6.9 % vs 1.1 % previous
- Japan Industrial Production 1.6 % vs 1.7 % expected
- PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.7283 (Prev 6.7373)
- Asia stocks reverse losses on China’s solid purchasing managers’ indexes – RTRS
- Dollar struggles on policy uncertainty, political woes – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR long 91K vs 91K long last week. No change in position.
- GBP short 26K vs 16K short last week. Shorts increased by 10K.
- JPY short 121K vs 127K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 6K
- CHF short 2K vs 4K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- CAD long 27K vs 8K short. CAD longs increased by 19K.
- AUD long 56k vs 51k last week. Longs increased by 5K.
- NZD long 35K vs 36K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
Markets Update:
The US Dollar remains under pressure. While the charts suggest that the currency is oversold in the short-term, it is getting no rest. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are back above 1.17 and 1.31 respectively, and USD/JPY is approaching a key support level at 110. In the Euro, there is little resistance until 1.20, while in Cable, a break above 1.32 would signal a rally to at least 1.35. The Yen is likely to struggle as the BoJ plans to maintain its QE programme for a long time, but a break of 110 in USD/JPY could trigger fresh momentum selling.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:00 BST – German Retail Sales
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
- 15:00 BST – US Pending Home Sales
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, August 1st
- 00:30 BST – Australia AIG Manufacturing Index
- 02:45 BST – China Caixin Manufacturing Index
- 05:30 BST – RBA Rate Decision
- 08:45 BST – Italian Manufacturing PMI
- 08:50 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:55 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone GDP
- 15:00 BST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday, August 2nd
- 09:30 BST – UK Construction PMI
- 13:15 BST – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, August 3rd
- 08:45 BST – Italian Services PMI
- 08:50 BST – French
- 08:55 BST – German
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone
- 09:30 BST – UK
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Retail Sales
- 12:00 BST – Bank of England Rate Decision
- 15:00 BST – US ISM
Friday, August 4th
- 02:30 BST – Australian Retail Sales
- 13:30 BST – US NFP
- 13:30 BST – US Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Employment Change
- 15:00 BST – Canadian Ivey PMI
