USD/CAD’s decline continued last week and reached as low as 1.2412, breaking 1.2460 low. Subsequent recovery was weak and limited below 4 hour 55 EMA. Nonetheless, as 1.2412 holds, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.2575 will extend the rebound from 1.2412 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.3346 to 1.2412 at 1.2769 first. On the downside, break of 1.2412 will extend recent fall from 1.3793 to next key fibonacci level at 1.2048.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Fall from 1.3793 is seen as the third leg and should target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.
In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It’s taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road. But firm break of 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 will raise doubt over this view.
