GBPUSD yesterday found a foothold on the mid-Bollinger band presently at the 1.2461 level, that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.3514 to 1.1410. The flattened 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2683 and the 61.8% Fibo of 1.2711 overhead (forming a vital resistance area) are obstructing upside price actions.
The short-term oscillators endorse some improvement in price as does the strengthening slope of the 50-day SMA. The MACD in the positive region has moved back above its red signal line, while the RSI is climbing in bullish territory. Furthermore, the stochastics have turned positive with the %K line producing a positive overlap of its red %D line.
In an upward scenario, immediate resistance could occur from 1.2683 till 1.2711. Conquering this, the 1.2812 fresh high and the nearby upper Bollinger band at 1.2865 may attempt to halt the ascent. Overrunning these too, the price may meet the 76.4% Fibo of 1.3018 before stretching to test the 1.3200 peak from March 9.
Should the 200-day SMA prevent advances, sellers may face a significant support section from the 100-day SMA at 1.2504 until the 50-day SMA at 1.2425 – which also includes the 50.0% Fibo of 1.2461 coupled with the mid-Bollinger band. A successful push under could plunge the pair towards the 38.2% Fibo of 1.2212. Even lower, the 1.2160 obstacle and the important trough of 1.2075 – where the lower Bollinger is located – could challenge a selloff.
Summarizing, a neutral mode exists in the short-term timeframe with buyers trying to build positive propulsion and break above 1.2812, to reinforce this view. However, the pair appears to be caught between converging SMAs, thus a sideways shift cannot be ruled out for now, until clearer backing sets a direction.
