EURUSD has retreated sharply under the 1.1269 level – that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 1.0774 to 1.1421 – and the key swing low of 1.1240. Sellers are attempting to extend the pullback, something also displayed in the short-term oscillators.
Although deep in the positive region, the MACD has eased below its red signal line, while the RSI is falling in bullish territory. Moreover, the stochastic lines are negatively charged with the %K line reaching the 20 mark. However, the climbing red Tenkan-sen line, which has distanced itself above its blue Kijun-sen line, is promoting advances as are the rising simple moving averages (SMAs) and the forthcoming bullish crossover of the 100-day SMA by the 50-day one.
If buyers manage to drive the price above the 1.1240 level and the 23.6% Fibo of 1.1269, initial friction could occur from the red Tenkan-sen line. A close above the three-month high of 1.1421 could confirm steady gains to challenge the 13-month peak of 1.1496, which would put the six-month directionless market under pressure. Of course, if positive sentiment overwhelms this peak, the price may see the 1.1514 and 1.1569 obstacles from January of 2019.
Should sellers plunge the price further, the 38.2% Fibo of 1.1174 and the crucial 1.1146 support underneath may attempt to apply the brakes ahead of the 50.0% Fibo of 1.1097. A continued dive may then face significant support from the 200-day SMA – at the 61.8% Fibo of 1.1022 – until the 1.1008 hurdle, before the overlapping 100- and 50-day SMAs around 1.0979.
Summarizing, the very-short-term bias is neutral above 1.1146. If price climbs above the 1.1421 high, this could build positive sentiment to conquer the 1.1496 peak and upgrade the short-to-medium-term timeframe to bullish.
