Upside extensions after Friday’s strong rally was short-lived, as the rally stalled at 1.0638 and closed under daily Ichimoku cloud on Monday that could be seen as negative signal.
Initial lower pivot at 1.0572 (Fibo 38.2% of Friday’s rally / converged 5/10SMA’s) was tested but is holding for now.
Overall structure remains weak with fresh 20/55 SMA bear-cross adding on existing negative outlook.
In addition, daily cloud that twisted on 01 Mar and is starting to widen, also weighs on market.
Bearish scenario requires firm break below 1.0572 and 1.0566 (daily Tenkan-sen) lower pivots to signal lower top and open way for further retracement of Fri/Mon 1.0499/1.0638 rally.
At the upside, daily cloud (currently spanned between 1.0605 and 1.0618) marks initial resistance, ahead of falling 30SMA (1.0641) and 100SMA (currently at 1.0668) which marks the upper trigger for stronger recovery action of larger 1.0827/1.0493 descend.
Res: 1.0605, 1.0618, 1.0641, 1.0668
Sup: 1.0572, 1.0566, 1.0552, 1.0520
