Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
• Time of formation: 20 Feb 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
• Time of formation: 1 Sep 2016
• Trend bias: Near term down
EUR/CHF – 1.1151
The single currency has finally resumed medium term upmove from 1.0622 (2016 low), adding credence to our bullish view and our long position entered at 1.0865 met indicated upside target at 1.1065 (with 200 points profit), hence upside bias remains for test of previous resistance at 1.1201, above there would encourage for headway to 1.1300 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1400-10 and price should falter well below 1.1500, bring correction later next month.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1081) cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0995-00 and support at 1.0984 would hold, bring another rally later. A daily close below this support would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring correction to 1.0940-50, then towards 1.0890-00 and price should stay well above previous support at 1.0833, bring another rally later.
Recommendation: Long entered at 1.0865 met target at 1.1065 with 200 points profit and would buy again at 1.1020 for 1.1220 with stop below 1.0920.
On the weekly chart, euro’s upmove has accelerated after breaking above indicated previous resistance at 1.0988 (now support), adding credence to our bullish view that recent rise from 1.0622 is still in progress and upside bias remains for another test of recent high at 1.1201, break there would encourage for headway to 1.1290-00, then towards 1.1390-00 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1500, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place next month or in late Q3.
On the downside, although pullback to 1.1080-90, then 1.1020-30 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1004) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Below previous resistance at 1.0988 (now support) would defer and risk correction towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0903) but only a weekly close below there would signal a temporary top is formed instead, bring further fall to 1.0850-60, then test of previous support at 1.0833 which is likely to hold from here, bring rebound later.
