EUR/GBP – 0.8921
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Buy at 0.8875, Target: 0.8995, Stop: 0.8835
Position : –
Target : –
Stop : –
New strategy :
Buy at 0.8875, Target: 0.8995, Stop: 0.8835
Position : –
Target : –
Stop : –
As the single currency has retreated after last week’s rally to 0.8995, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.8900 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8875-80 and bring another rise later, above psychological resistance at 0.9000 would extend recent rise to 0.9020 and possibly towards 0.9050 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level, risk from there has increased for a retreat later.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy euro on pullback as 0.8870-75 should limit downside. Only break of support at 0.8829 would abort and confirm top is formed instead, bring correction to 0.8800 first.
Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.
