NZDUSD refused to return below the descending trendline earlier this week and ticked up instead, hinting that the short-term uptrend started from the 11-year low of 0.5468 is not ready to end soon.
A decisive close above the 0.6130 hurdle, which is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the bearish wave with a top at 0.6754 and a bottom at 0.5468, could confirm the continuation of the positive pattern, with optimism strengthening further above the 0.6175 high. The next resistance to keep in mind could be the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.6260, while not far above, the 0.6340 mark, which coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), may attract special attention as any break at this point could upgrade the medium-term picture to neutral.
In the event of a downside reversal, the trendline currently around 0.5980 should again stand tall to maintain buying interest in the market. Beneath that, a break of the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.5960 could open the way towards the 0.5900-0.5850 area, where any significant step lower would eliminate hopes of an upward-trending market, letting the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.5770 to next come into play.
Meanwhile the technical oscillators are backing a neutral-to-positive short-term session as the RSI is pushing efforts to hold above its 50 neutral mark and the MACD is fluctuating around its red signal line.
In brief, NZDUSD is likely to endorse a bullish bias above 0.6130. Only a pullback below the trendline could shift the focus back to the downside.
