Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 03 May 2016
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 3 May 2016
• Trend bias: Sideways
EUR/USD – 1.1648
The single currency has surged again after brief pullback, adding credence to our bullish view that recent upmove is still in progress and price already exceeded indicated upside targets at previous chart resistance at 1.1616, bullishness remains for medium term upmove to extend further gain to another previous resistance at 1.1714, break there would encourage for headway to 1.1800-10 but near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter below 1.1870-80, bring retreat later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to previous resistance at 1.1583 is likely, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1527) would limit downside and bring another rise later to aforesaid upside targets. Below support at 1.1435 would defer and risk correction towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1402) but only a daily close below support at 1.1370 would signal a temporary top is possibly formed, bring further fall to 1.1312 support but previous resistance at 1.1296 should remain intact.
Recommendation: Buy at 1.1530 for 1.1750 with stop below 1.1430.
On the weekly chart, last week’s rally formed another white candlestick and current firmness add credence to our view that recent upmove from 1.0340 low is still in progress and bullishness remains for this move to extend further gain to previous chart resistance at 1.1714, however, break there is needed to retain upside bias and encourage for headway to 1.1800-10, having said that, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.1900 and price should falter below 1.2000, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
On the downside, although pullback to 1.1530-40 is likely, reckon 1.1475-80 would contain downside and bring another rise later. Below 1.1435 would risk test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1397) but only a weekly close below support at 1.1370 would signal a temporary top is formed instead, bring correction to 1.1312 support, having said that, previous resistance at 1.1285 should turn into support and 1.1200-10 should hold, price should stay above strong support at 1.1109-19, bring another upmove later.
