The pair bounces on Thursday after bear-leg from 3.6437 (07 July high) hit fresh three-week low at 3.5122 on Wednesday, failing so far to clearly penetrate weekly cloud (cloud top lies at 3.5340).
Falling thick daily cloud continues to weigh (cloud base lies at 3.5371), seeing risk of limited recovery before broader bears resume.
However, strong bullish signal is developing on reversal of deeply oversold slow stochastic on daily chart, which may trigger stronger correction. Penetration into daily cloud would open next 3.5472 (converged 20/55SMA in attempt to form bear-cross) and expose 3.5624 (Fibo 38.2% of 3.6437/3.5122 / daily Kijun-sen).
Sustained break here is needed to sideline bears and signal stronger correction.
Otherwise, early recovery rejection (ideally under daily cloud) would keep immediate risk at the downside.
Firm break through weekly cloud top would open 3.4837 (200SMA) and risk bearish extension towards weekly cloud base at 3.3633, as continuation of broader bear-phase from record high at 3.9414 (11 Jan high).
Res: 3.5371, 3.5472, 3.5624, 3.5780
Sup: 3.5255, 3.5122, 3.5000, 3.4837
