Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 03 May 2016
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 3 May 2016
• Trend bias: Sideways
EUR/USD – 1.1384
The single currency has continued moving higher after brief pullback, adding credence to our bullish view that recent upmove is still in progress and price already exceeded indicated upside targets at 1.1480-85 (50% projection of 1.0570-1.1296 measuring from 1.1119) and 1.1565-70 (61.8% projection), upside bias remains for a test of previous chart resistance at 1.1616, break there would encourage for headway to 1.1660 and possibly towards another previous resistance at 1.1714 which is likely to hold on first testing due to near term overbought condition.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1490-00 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1477) and bring another rise later to aforesaid upside targets. Below support at 1.1435 would defer and risk correction towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1386) but only a daily close below support at 1.1370 is needed to suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring further fall to 1.1312 support but previous resistance at 1.1296 should remain intact.
Recommendation: Buy at 1.1450 for 1.1650 with stop below 1.1350.
On the weekly chart, as the single currency has maintained a firm undertone, reinforcing our bullish view that recent upmove from 1.0340 low is still in progress and bullishness remains for this move to extend further gain to previous chart resistance at 1.1616, then 1.1660, however, near term overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond previous chart resistance at 1.1714 and price should falter below 1.1800-10, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.1450 and support at 1.1435 should hold, bring another upmove later. A drop below support at 1.1370 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk correction to 1.1312 support but break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1250, then towards 1.1200 but price should stay well above support at 1.1109-19, bring another upmove later.
