STOCKS
Equity indices are looking bullish for the near to medium term and could be accompanied with interim dips.
Dow (21629.72, -0.04%) is almost stable the resistance turned support at 21600 if holds, could keep the prices higher. Above 21600, there is scope of rising towards 21900-22000 eventually.
Dax (12587.16, -0.35%) came off from levels below 12700 but while immediate support near 12500 holds, there is still some scope of rising towards 12700-12800 in the medium term.
Shanghai (3168.06, -0.26%) could see some movement in the 3190-3145 region before moving higher towards 3220 in the medium term. Near term looks bullish while above 3140.
Nikkei (19991.86, -0.63%) came down again breaking below 20100 as mentioned yesterday and signals that the upward momentum is getting weaker and the price may not possibly break above 20300 easily. Sideways consolidation within the broad 20300-19750 region may continue for some more time.
Nifty (9915.95, +0.30%) is moving up gradually and could test 10000 in the next few sessions. Near term looks strongly bullish.
COMMODITIES
Weakness in Dollar index (94.56 and highly oversold) has impacted positively across all the commodities. Gold (1236) has managed to break its crucial resistance of 1232 and open up 1245 levels respectively. The recent sideways range for Gold could be 1220-1245. Silver (16.15) is still within its downward channel though there are chances of a upside rally towards 16.54 regions.
Copper (2.73) moved higher within the trading range of 2.66-2.78. . A close above 2.78 regions could open up 2.85 levels as well.
The energy pack had closed marginally lower but it might remain stable while above 47.70 (Brent) and 45 (WTI) respectively. Most factors are supportive for oil at the moment. For the near term, Brent (48.58) and WTI (46.16)seems to be trading in a 47-51 and 45-48 range now and the medium term ranges are now 44-52 and 42-50. The big question is whether we will see a rise past 52 (Brent) and 50 (WTI) or not by the end of July and to get a clue on that, we will keep an eye on U.S Weekly crude oil inventories.
FOREX
Dollar Index (94.75) continues its fall and could test 94.00 before pausing. Trend remains firmly down just now.
Euro (1.1535) has broken above crucial resistance near 1.1495 and is now trading within the resistance zone of 1.15-1.16 which needs to break on the upside to keep the upward momentum intact. We need to be cautious at levels of 1.15-1.16.
Dollar-Yen (112.10) could be headed towards 111.35 in the next few sessions while below 112.65. the downward momentum has been triggered and the prices may not stop near 112 just now. We could expect a pause not before testing 111.50-111.35 on the downside. Near term looks bearish.
Aussie (0.7892) has moved up sharply yesterday as expected and would now head towards our initial target of 0.8150-75. But there could be a small dip from either current levels or from levels near 0.80 before resuming its upward rally. Overall near term looks bullish.
Pound (1.3087) is trading just at the earlier resistance turned support near 1.3050 and while that holds, there could be some more upmove in Pound in the near term. Else failure to hold above immediate support may take it back towards 1.30 or lower in the next few sessions.
Dollar-Rupee (64.35) has come down sharply from levels near 64.50-64.65 in the past few sessions and could now be headed to lower levels of 64.15-64.00 in the near term. The continued fall in Dollar Index may boost the emerging currencies along with the Rupee in the coming sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have started to come off in line with our expectation. The 5Yr (1.85%) is headed towards 1.80% while the 10Yr (2.31%) and the 30Yr (2.89%) could move towards 2.2% and 2.85% in the coming sessions.
The US 10-5YR differential (0.46%) has also started to come off and could head towards 0.4375% in the medium term.
The US-Japan 10Yr (2.24%) could come down towards 2.20% in the coming sessions pulling down both Nikkei and Dollar-Yen with itself.
The German-US 10Yr (-1.72%) has been moving up and could rise some more to test -1.70% before coming off from there. While the yield spread rises, Euro looks strong.
