USD/JPY edged higher to 114.49 last week but failed to sustain above 114.36 resistance and reversed. The rejection from 114.49 argues that rise from 108.81 is completed. And, the whole correction from 118.65 is possibly still in progress. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 112.01). Sustained break will pave the way to 108.12 and below. On the upside, above 113.57 minor resistance will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
