GBP/USD’s pull back from 1.3029 completed at 1.2811 last week and subsequent strong rally confirmed resumption of larger rise from 1.1946. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168 next. We’ll be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But firm break of 1.3168 will bring further rise towards 1.3444 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.2999 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.
In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. However, firm break of 1.3444 should confirm reversal and turn outlook bullish.
