NZDUSD finally climbed above the short-term moving averages in the 4-hour chart but is still flirting with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 0.6754 to 0.6377 near 0.6466. The price after the plummet towards the new three-month trough of 0.6377 is getting ready to drive the market north until the one-and-half-month descending trend line.
The positive slope in the RSI, which runs comfortably above its 50 neutral mark is painting a rosy picture for short-term trading. Moreover, the MACD oscillator is extending its bullish bias above its trigger line and slightly below the zero level.
The pair needs to overcome the 23.6% Fibo of 0.6466 – a key level – to meet a key barrier between 0.6482-0.6500, taken from the previous highs. The 38.2% Fibo of 0.6520 and the falling trend line could act as strong resistance too before a more important battle starts near the 0.6553 barrier.
In the negative scenario where the 23.6% Fibo halts upside movements, the market could retest the 40-period SMA of 0.6440 before revisiting the 20-period SMA at 0.6410. If this prove easy to penetrate this time, the decline may next pause somewhere near the three-month bottom of 0.6377, reached on Tuesday.
Briefly, NZDUSD has been moving in a descending pattern since January, however, in the very short-term, it is looking somewhat bullish, meeting the Ichimoku cloud. The pair may hit the diagonal line and return lower again. In case of a jump above the line, this would open the way for a positive picture in the near term.
