USDJPY’s positive picture seems to be losing some fuel in the recent push up from the 107.76 level.
The short-term oscillators suggest that the negative momentum is picking up. The MACD, in the positive region is only just above its red trigger line, while the RSI has dropped to its neutral mark. The Stochastics look bearish with the declining %K line distancing itself below its %D line and into the oversold region. That said, the fresh bullish crossover of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) by the 100-day one and the upward slopes of the 20-, 50- and 100-day SMAs, hint that the bounce off the 104.45 low could extend a while longer.
If buyers resurface and push over the 109.72 resistance, first to challenge the climb is the nearby 110.28 high. Overrunning this, a more sustained move would be required to overcome the area from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 112.39 to 104.45 of 110.52 to the peak of 110.67 from 21 May 2019. Moving higher, the gap from May last year of 110.95 to 111.04 could prevent the price from testing the 111.68 resistance.
To the downside, initially the 61.8% Fibo of 109.36 coupled with the 20-day SMA could be the first to apply the brakes. Steering lower, the 50-day SMA at 109.17 could apply some friction ahead of a significant support region from 108.66 to 108.42 – which also encapsulates the 200-day SMA – involving the 100-day SMA and the 50.0% Fibo respectively.
Summarizing, the short- and medium-term picture continue to reflect a bullish bias and a shift only below the area of 107.76 to 107.49 would throw the outlook into question.
