- Employment count rebounded by 35,000 in December
- Unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.9%
- Job growth averaged 27,000 in 2019
These were the jobs numbers we were all hoping for following November’s ugly employment report. The overall headcount retraced half the previous month’s decline (even more if you exclude transitory factors from November) and more importantly the unemployment rate erased much of November’s 0.4 percentage point increase (which was easily the largest in a decade). Unsurprisingly, the Canadian dollar is a bit perkier this morning and markets have slightly pared back the odds of a rate cut this year.
But these numbers on their own won’t necessarily keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines. GDP data for H2/19 has been disappointing, and a slightly softer labour market over that period suggests transitory factors aren’t solely to blame for sub-trend growth. Having cleared the employment hurdle, we’re now looking ahead to Monday’s Business Outlook Survey to see how Canadian firms are dealing with a still-uncertain global backdrop.
