The AUD/USD will be able to confirm the next direction depending on its reaction at the support line (blue) of the uptrend channel. A strong bullish bounce (green check) makes an uptrend likely whereas a bearish breakout would invalidate (red x) the current wave outlook.
The AUD/USD made a deep retracement, which seems to have unfolded in an ABC (pink) zigzag pattern. A bearish breakout below the 100% FIbonacci level of wave 2 vs 1, however, invalidates (red x) the bullish wave pattern and indicates a downtrend. In that case, price made a bullish ABC rather then a 1-2 pattern. A bullish breakout, bounce, and continuation could make an uptrend more likely (green check).
