GBPJPY is attempting to push below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and swing low residing at the 141.40 and 141.15 levels respectively. The negative move seems to be aided by the momentum indicators and the slight downturn in the 20-day SMA.
The short-term oscillators reflect a pause in the market but lean towards a negative picture. The MACD, in the positive area, is below its red trigger line nearing the zero line, while the downward sloping RSI has slipped below its neutral mark. Noteworthy is the approaching bullish cross of the 200-day SMA by the 100-day one, which could merit some caution in reviving the ascent.
To the downside, immediate support could come from the 50-day SMA at 141.40 and the swing low of 141.15 ahead of the 140.32 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 148.86 to 126.53. Moving lower, the 138.85 support from October 24 could halt loss of further ground towards a fortified 50.0% Fibo of 137.70, where the 200- and 100-day SMAs look to converge.
If buyers resurface, the push higher could initially encounter resistance from the 20-day SMA at 143.02 and the 76.4% Fibo of 143.58. Next, the nearby high of 144.35 could test buyers’ efforts to reach the nine-month-high of 147.95. Overtaking this too, the 148.86 high from March 14 could prevent the test of the congested highs (149.48 to 150.00 area) from May to November of 2018.
Overall, the short-term bias is bearish and a close below 141.15 would reinforce this outlook. However, a break above 144.35 could see the short-term bias realign with the medium positive picture
