Germany Registers Larger-Than-Expected Surplus In Both Trade And Current Account

Notes/Observations

• Germany registers larger-than-expected trade and current account surpluses; Data suggested that impact of US-China trade tensions on German might be easing and keeps hope alive that the German economy could avoid a contraction in 4Q.
• Key central bank decisions in the week with Fed, SNB and ECB all expected to keep policy steady (Note: central banks appear to be moving towards monetary policy out, fiscal policy in stance)

Asia:

• China Nov Trade Balance (USD-denominated): $38.7B v $44.5Be; Exports Y/Y: -1.1% v +0.8%e; Imports Y/Y: +0.3%e v -1.4%e
• China Nov Foreign Reserves: $3.096T v $3.100Te
• China govt said to have ordered all foreign computer equipment and software to be removed from government offices within 3 years
• PBOC Advisor Li Shijin: Domestic potential GDP growth will be under 6% over next 5 years
• Japan Q3 Final GDP revised higher (Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Annualized Q/Q: 1.8% v 0.6%e)
• North Korea stated that it had conducted a “very important test” at its western satellite launching site; successful testing would play a key role in changing the country’s “strategic position” in the near future (No details given on the testing) . Later reports speculated that NK might have tested solid fuel rockets, which can launch significantly faster than liquid fuel rockets

Europe/Mideast:

• ECB’s Holzmann (Austria): Hopes to see the end of negative interest rates by the time his 6-year term ends in 2025 Brexit: – UK General election Survation poll: Conservatives 45%, +2ppt, Labour 31%, -2ppt
• General election Opinium poll: Conservatives 46%, Labour 31% (maintains 15 point lead)
• BMG Poll Conservative Party’s lead over Labour has widened to nine points from six a week ago (conservatives: 41% (+2pts); Labour: 32% (-1pt); Liberal Dem: 14% (+1pt); Brexit: 4% (unch)
• You Gov Poll: Conservative Party has increased its lead slightly over the opposition Labour Party to 10 points (Conservatives: 43% (+1 pt); Labour: 33% (unch)
• Savanta ComRes poll: Conservatives: 41% (-1); labour: 33% (+1 pt)

Americas:

• President Trump: North Korea leader Kim could lose everything if he acts in a hostile manner, but I think he is too smart to do that

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.08% at 407.02, FTSE -0.17% at 7,227.05, DAX -0.11% at 13,152.42, CAC-40 -0.23% at 5,858.60, IBEX-35 +0.07% at 9,391.00, FTSE MIB -0.25% at 23,124.92, SMI +0.12% at 10,476.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.08%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices in the red following indices in Asia mixed and slightly lower US futures. Air France up on November passenger traffic stats and ICA Gruppen on November sales. Tullow Oil shares tanking 60% today, as the CEO steps down and company guides lower FY20 production y/y and suspends dividends. Autoneum down following FY19 outlook cut. Tesco gains as the company confirmed it has commenced a strategic review of its businesses in Thailand and Malaysia. Prosus down slightly as the company has increased its offer price for Just Eat to 740p/shr from 710p/shr. Competing bidder Takeaway and target Just Eat little changed. Osram rallies as AMS offer exceeds acceptance threshold; AMS shares down. Kerry Group relatively flat after reportedly hiring advisors to assess bid for DuPont’s Nutrition unit valued at $25B; deal would double size of company. Sanofi-Aventis down as the company acquired US Synthorx. Senior up on confirmation of press speculation that the company is reviewing strategic options around the Aerostructures business. Likewise, Conzzeta rallying 15% on news that the company will focus on its sheet metal processing unit and divest other business units. Safilo shares gaining on acquiring 70% of Blenders Eyewear. Wirecard down as another article regarding the company’s accounting practices appeared in the FT. Rocket Internet rises after a share buyback of 10% of market cap. Notable earners today include Thor Industries.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Tesco [TSCO.UK] +7% (considers Asia exit), Autoneum [AUTN.CH] -13.5% (cuts outlook)
• Consumer staples: Kerry Group [KYGA.UK] -0.5% (reportedly looks at DuPont’s Nutrition unit)
• Energy: Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] -59% (CEO resigns; cuts outlook and suspends div)
• Financials: Senior [SNR.UK] +5% (statement re press)
• Healthcare: Sanofi-Aventis [SAN.FR] -1% (acquires Synthorx)
• Technology: Osram [OSR.DE] +14% (threshold for ams’ takeover offer for OSRAM is satisfied), Rocket Internet [RKET.DE] +4% (buyback), Wirecard [WDI.DE] -2% (new FT article)

Speakers

• Bank of International Settlements (BIS) official Borio: Time is right for ECB to do a strategy review
• OECD’s Pereira: Norway future fiscal pressures were fairly tremendous
• Japan PM Abe stated that would not hesitate to hold elections if time was appropriate
• China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) official Li Xingqian reiterated its goal to actively increase the country’s imports and to further lower tariffs at the appropriate time
• Iran’s govt spokesman Rabiei: Claims that thousands killed in unrest was untrue. No plan to cut interest access in the future

Currencies/Fixed Income

• EUR/USD was higher by approx. 0.1% as German trade data seemed to have kept hope alive that the economy could avoid a contraction in 4Q. Focus on the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday (1st for chief Lagarde). Dealers noted that policymakers would want to leave time for the decisions made back in September to have an effect.
• GBP currency was higher as weekend opinion polls for Thursday’s UK general election continued to show that the Conservative Party was leading the opposition Labour Party. GBP/USD edging its way towards the 1.32 area. Dealers noted that 1.36 continued to be the main pivot point for the pair.

Economic Data

• (CH) Swiss Nov Unemployment Rate: 2.3% v 2.3%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj) : 2.3% v 2.3%e ;
• (DE) Germany Oct Current Account Balance: €22.7B v €20.0Be; Trade Balance: €21.5B v €19.3Be; Exports M/M: +1.2% v -0.3%e; Imports M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e
• (DE) Germany Q3 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.4% prior
• (DK) Denmark Oct Current Account Balance (DKK): 23.6B v 15.8B prior; TRade Balance: 9.1B v 8.6B prior
• (NO) Norway Oct Overall GDP M/M: +1.2 v -0.5% prior; ; Mainland GDP M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e
• (FR) Bank of France Nov Industrial (Business) Sentiment: 97 v 98e
• (SE) Sweden SEB Sweden Housing-Price Indicator
• (CZ) Czech Oct National Trade Balance (CZK): 7.2B v13.3Be
• (CZ) Czech Oct Industrial Output Y/Y: -3.0% v -3.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3% prior
• (CZ) Czech Nov Unemployment Rate: 2.6% v 2.6%e
• (HU) Hungary Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.5B v €0.2Be
• (TW) Taiwan Nov Trade Balance: $4.3B v $4.2Be; Exports Y/Y: +3.3% v +1.1%e; Imports Y/Y: +5.8% v +2.7%e%e
• (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 587.8B v 589.4B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 499.9B v 504.2B prior
• (CZ) Czech Nov International Reserves: $146,2B v $147.7B prior
• (SG) Singapore Nov Foreign Reserves: $276.0B v $276.8B prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Dec Sentix Investor Confidence: +0.7 v -5.3e (1st positive reading since May)

Fixed Income Issuance

• (UR) Ukraine Nov CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 5.8%e v 6.5% prior
• (IL) Israel Central Bank Dec Minutes
• 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €3.0B in 6-month Bubills
• 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bill
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 3.3% prior
• 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds
• 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 5% 2029 bonds
• 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
• 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov Trade Balance: $0.0Be v -$0.3B prior; Total Exports: No est v $5.3B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.6B prior
• 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov International Reserves: No est v $39.7B prior
• 06:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank Expectations Survey: Inflation Next-12 Month: No est v 10.5% prior
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Nov CPI M/M: 0.8%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.0% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming Bill auction
• 08:15 (CA) Canada Nov Annualized Housing Starts: 215.0Ke v 202.0K units prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Building Permits M/M: No est v -6.5% prior
• 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €3.8-5.0B in 2-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes
• 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Dec ANZ Heavy Truckometer M/M: No est v 2.5% prior
• 17:05 (AU) RBA Gov Lowe
• 17:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 108.1 prior
• 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov M3 Money Stock Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior; M2 Money Stock Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior
• 19:30 (AU) Australia Q3 House Price Index Q/Q: 1.5%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -4.6%e v -7.4% prior
• 19:30 (AU) Australia NAB Business Confidence: No est v 2 prior; Business Conditions: No est v 3 prior
• 20:00 (PH) Philippines Oct Trade Balance: -$3.6Be v -$3.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: -2.7%e v -2.6% prior; Imports Y/Y: -7.4%e v -10.5% prior
• 20:30 (CH) China Nov CPI Y/Y: 4.4%e v 3.8% prior; PPI Y/Y: -1.5%e v -1.6% prior
• 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month bills
• 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell 12-month bills
• 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell10-year bonds
• 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 5-year JGB bonds