STOCKS
Dow and DAX are struggling to gain strength. Dow has to sustain above 28000 and the DAX needs a strong rise past 13300 to move higher. Nikkei is bullish. Shanghai looks vulnerable for further fall while it remains below 2900. Sensex and Nifty have crucial supports which neends to hold to keep the chances alive to see one more leg of upmove.
Dow (28051.41 -112.59, -0.40%) has dipped on Friday and needs to be seen if it sustains above 28000 or not. While above 28000, the bullish outlook will be intact to see 28800 in the coming days. But a break below 28000 can drag it to 27750-27600 again which could then delay the above mentioned rise.
DAX (13236.38, -9.2, -0.07%) is continuing to face resistance at 13300 and has come-off on Friday indicating the 13000-13300 sideways range is intact. While below 13300 a dip to 13050-13000 is possible.
Nikkei (23544.85, +250.94, +1.08%) has risen above 23500 and will have to be seen if it can sustain higher. While above 23500, the bullish outlook is intact to test 24000 and higher levels in the coming days. Intermediate resistance is at 23825.
As expected Shanghai (2884.80, +12.82, +0.45%) fell to test 2860 on Friday and has bounced from there. However, a strong rise past 2900 is needed to ease the downside pressure. While below 2900, Shanghai is vulnerable to revisit 2800 levels on the downside in the coming days.
Sensex (40793.81, -336.36, -0.82%) has an immediate support at 40500 which has to hold in order to keep the chances alive of seeing a rise to 41300. A break below 40500 can drag it to 40000 and can negate the above mentioned rise.
Nifty (12056.05, -95.10, -0.78%) on the other hand has supports at 12000 and 11957. As long as these supports hold, there are chances to see a rise to the crucial resistance level of 12300. We will have to wait and watch.
COMMODITIES
Brent (61.29) and WTI (56.13) have risen after a sharp fall seen on Friday. WE continue to look at resistance near 65 to hold on Brent and 59-60 on WTI with a possible ranged sideways movement in the near term. Within this, downside could be limited to 56 and 54 respectively.
Gold (1465.90) and Silver (17.02) are stable near levels seen on Friday. Near term looks ranged for Gold while 1460 itself is forming an interim support. On a break below 1460, we may see a test of 1440 before bouncing higher from here. Silver is also holding above 16.5, and looks ranged with a possible test of 16.
Copper (2.6750) has come off from levels above 2.70 and could be broadly ranged in the 2.6250-2.7250 region for the near term. Only a break on either side would give us a clear direction for the longer run.
FOREX
Dollar Index (98.33) is stable and is broadly within the rising channel since Sep’18. While there is scope for a rise towards 99-100 in the medium term, downside is likely to be limited to 97. Important levels to watch just now would be 98.50; a break above which would turn sentiments bullish for the near term.
Euro (1.1017) is trading below resistance zone of 1.1025-1.1050 where a number of short term resistances and MAs come into the picture. If the resistance holds, we may see a fall in Euro in the near term below 1.0995.
Dollar-Yen (109.69) has risen above 109.50 and could head towards upper resistance at 110 from where a fresh fall could be possible. Near term is bullish.
EUR-JPY (120.84) is rising again to re-test resistance near 121.50. Note that below 121.50, there is decent resistance on the daily candles near 121 itself. While 121 or 121.50 holds, upside could be limited.
Pound (1.2911) is trading near the upper end of the 1.28-1.30 region and could face a rejection in the next couple of sessions to fall back towards 1.28. Near term is bearish while below 1.30.
Aussie (0.6774) has risen slightly after falling for most sessions last week. Aussie could see a small rise towards 0.6790/95 in the next few sessions before again falling towards our earlier mentioned 0.6724.
USDCNY (7.0291) is likely to trade in the 7.0455-7.0188 region for the near term. Immediate view is to see a sideways range trade.
Dollar-Rupee (71.75) has scope of testing 72 before falling off from there towards 71.40. Note that only if we see a break above 72 (less preferred), we may bring in 72.25 into the picture. We do not look for a rise above 72.25 in the near term.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields are turning higher from their key supports and needs a close watch to see if they can hold on to Friday’s gains. The German Yields are hovering near their key supports and could be gearing up for a fresh rise in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI can dip in the near-term and then can reverse higher again.
The US 2Yr (1.62%) and 5Yr (1.65%) Treasury yields remained stable while the 10Yr (1.81%) and 30Yr (2.24%) have moved higher on Friday. It will have to be seen if the 10Yr and 30Yr can sustain this bounce-back move or not. The 10Yr has to hold above 1.75% and the 30Yr above 2.15% in order to avoid further fall and see a fresh rise to 2% and 2.35% in the coming weeks. We will have to wait and see.
The German 2Yr (-0.65%), 5Yr (-0.59%) and 10Yr (-0.36%) remained lower but stable while the 30Yr (0.14%) has risen within its 0.10%-0.15% sideways range. As we have been mentioning for some time, the yields are coming closer to their support and can see a strong bounce in the coming days. The 10Yr has support at -0.40 % and can rise to -0.20% and -0.15% in the coming weeks. The 30Yr can surge to 0.40% on a strong break above its resistance at 0.22%.
The 10Yr GoI (6.4655%) has room on the downside to test 6.43% and 6.40% in the near-term. Thereafter a bounce-back move to 6.50% and 6.60% is possible.
