AUDUSD’s descent seems to have paused yet again at the 0.6767 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 0.7081 to 0.6670, turning the pair sideways. Further backing this view is the squeeze in the Bollinger bands and the flattening in the 50- and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs).
The short-term oscillators reflect the stalling in the negative outlook. The MACD remains in the negative area but above its red trigger line, while the RSI indicates a marginal improvement in negative momentum as it is pointing down slightly below the neutral mark.
If sellers manage to dive below the lower-Bollinger band and the 0.6767 tough support, the price could plunge to test the 0.6723 and 0.6709 swing lows from October 16 and October 10 respectively. Moving lower, traders’ attention could turn to the 0.6686 support, which may halt the drop towards the multi-year low of 0.6670.
Otherwise, if buyers push higher, immediate resistance could come from the 0.6796 level – where the 50-period SMA and upper-Bollinger band are located – and the nearby 0.6809 obstacle. Climbing higher, the resistance area from 0.6825 to 0.6834, where the 100- and 200-period SMAs and swing high reside, may apply significant downside pressure. Overcoming this too, could see price test the downtrend line and resistance of 0.6882.
Summarizing, the short-term bias is neutral-to-bearish and a break below 0.6767 would reinforce the negative picture.
