Market movers ahead
- In the euro area we have a packed week with Spanish elections, a potential decision on US car tariffs and the German Q3 GDP figures coming up.
- Several Fed speeches and US retail sales figures will be scrutinised by the market for changes to the monetary policy outlook.
- In the China focus continues to be on the trade negotiations with the US, while we expect macro data to confirm a soft picture with moderate signs of recovery.
- In Japan we expect solid GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q3.
- In Scandinavia, inflation figures for October and labour market data will take the limelight, especially in Sweden.
Weekly wrap-up
- Further optimism that the trade war has peaked and a phase one deal is in the pipeline, including a roll-back of some tariffs.
- Building consensus that the Fed should wait and see how things play out before acting again.
- The Bank of England shifts from a neutral policy stance to a dovish one.
- Risk appetite returns on the back of the further trade deal optimism, pushing US and European yields higher.
