The price of crude oil declined after the American Petroleum Institute (API) released the oil inventory numbers for the past week. Numbers showed that the weekly crude oil stock rose by more than 4.2 million barrels. This is after declining by 708k in the past week. Later today, the EIA will release its crude oil inventory numbers. The market expects inventories to rise by 1.5 million barrels after rising by more than 5 million in the previous week. Traders also reacted to news that Iran would start enriching uranium today. The country started incremental moves to enrichment in July after it said that European allies were not doing enough to support it.
The New Zealand dollar rose slightly after the country released employment numbers for the third quarter. In the quarter, employment change declined from the previous 0.8% to 0.2%. The unemployment rate increased from the previous 3.9% to 4.2%. The participation rate rose from 70.3% to 70.40%. Meanwhile, the labor cost index increased at an annualized rate of 2.3% from 2.2%. On a QoQ basis, the index declined slightly from 0.8% to 0.6%. The kiwi has been weakening for the past few days as traders worry about the country’s growth. Meanwhile, in Japan, services PMI declined from 52.8 to 49.7. This was the first time it contracted in three years.
Later today, the market will receive PMI data from Europe. In Germany, services PMI is expected to decline slightly from 51.4 to 51.2 while the composite PMI is expected to rise slightly from 48.5 to 48.6. The composite PMI combines both services and manufacturing PMI. The market will receive September retail sales numbers from the European Union. Retail sales are expected to have increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%. On a MoM basis, retail sales are expected to decline from 0.3% to 0.1%. In the EU, services PMI is expected to have increased from 51.6 to 51.8. Later today, the market will also receive the autumn budget from the United Kingdom and preliminary nonfarm productivity data from the United States.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair declined sharply in the American session. The pair dropped from a high of 1.1140 to a low of 1.1060. This was the lowest level since October 17. The pair stabilised slightly during the Asian session and is now trading at 1.1080. On the hourly chart, the RSI has emerged from the oversold territory to 36. The price is along the 14-day moving averages and slightly below the 28-day EMA. The momentum indicator has also continued to rise. The pair may rise slightly today to test the important resistance level of 1.1100.
NZD/USD
The NZD/USD pair rose slightly after New Zealand released its job numbers. The pair has been declining previously. In the past one week, it has dropped from 0.6465 to yesterday’s low of 0.6363. On the hourly chart, this price is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. The price is below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The RSI has remained slightly above the oversold level of 30. The pair may move up to test the 50% Fibonacci level of 0.6400.
XBR/USD
The XBR/USD pair declined from yesterday’s high of 62.89 to the current low of 62.27. On the hourly chart, this price is between the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The RSI has been declining after reaching a high of 83. The momentum indicator has moved below the 100 level. The pair may resume the upward trend especially if the EIA releases weak inventory growth.
