Market Movers ahead
- The most important event in the Nordics is the Riksbank’s announcement on Tuesday at 09:30 CET. Although we expect the Riksbank to stay on hold, we expect it remove the small rate cut probability in the updated rate path.
- In Denmark, the FX reserves data for June is due out on Tuesday, which we expect to show that Danmarks Nationalbank did not intervene.
- In Norway, it will be interesting to see whether house prices continued to fall in June given that they fell the most since the financial crisis in May.
- In the US, several important releases are due out. Most important are the jobs report for June, ISM manufacturing, the FOMC meeting minutes and FOMC speeches.
- In the euro area, the unemployment rate for May is due out on Monday.
Global macro and market themes
- Central banks are beginning to discuss ‘when to leave the party’.
- Interestingly, both Mark Carney and Mario Draghi argue that a constant monetary policy is becoming more accommodative as the economy continues to recover.
- There is a risk that central banks are too optimistic, as inflation expectations remain low.
- Mario Draghi let the stimulus exit genie out of the bottle and we expect EUR/USD to move higher in 12M.
