Deal or no deal?
- Unlike Theresa May, Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants both the hard-core Brexiteers from the European Research Group (ERG) group and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on board before signing a deal with the EU.
- Remember the EU can always call an extraordinary EU summit if necessary, so negotiations are likely to continue, even if the EU summit on Thursday-Friday does not ratify a deal.
- Robert Peston from ITV tweeted this morning ‘Downing St AGAIN downbeat…Government source telling me: “Chances of a deal are low. DUP seem unlikely to support anything that’s negotiable”’. A government official stated something similar this morning.
- Even if Johnson reaches an agreement with the EU, the big uncertainty is whether he has support at home.
The head of the ERG group Steve Baker said the Conservative MPs should ‘trust the PM’ after he met with Johnson yesterday. However, The Sun reveals that the ERG is split with some members stating they will reject Johnson’s deal.
The DUP’s votes are still crucial but it said ‘gaps remain’ after the leaders met with Johnson last night (see BBC). The DUP continues to reject a border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the Irish Sea. The question is whether Johnson’s pledge to give Northern Ireland money from London, EU and Dublin may persuade it (see Irish Times).
In our view, Pro-Brexit Labour MPs will probably still have reservations about voting in favour of a deal, as Johnson’s version of Brexit is harder than Theresa May’s. Pro-Brexit Labour MPs want safeguards on workers’ rights and environmental and consumer standards (see, for example, The Guardian). Labour MPs voting for Johnson’s deal may be expelled from the party and get their whip withdrawn.
What’s happening today
- Negotiations between the UK and EU27 continue this morning.
- Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay is due to speak before the House of Common’s Brexit Committee at 11:00 CEST.
- EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will brief EU ambassadors around 14:00 CEST.
- The UK Cabinet meets around 17:00 CEST, when Johnson may or may not put forward a deal.
- At 20:30 CEST, Prime Minister Johnson is scheduled to speak to Conservative MPs at a 1922 Committee meeting.
