General Trend:
- Earlier on Thursday, Trump did not answer and walked away when asked by reporters whether he was prepared to accept a ‘smaller deal’ with China (financial press)
- Tariffs on $250B of Chinese goods are scheduled to rise from 25% to 30% on Tuesday (Oct 15th). On Sept 11th, Trump announced he would delay the tariff increase to Oct 15th from Oct 1st.
- Hang Seng outperforms ahead of expected talks between Trump and Liu He
- Shanghai Composite lags in Asia despite reported trade optimism
- Japanese earnings movers in focus: Fast Retailing rises over 3%, Seven & I gains over 5%
- German tech firm SAP rises over 6% in US afterhours trading, affirmed outlooks and named Co-CEOs
- Asian government bond yields generally track Thursday’s rise in US Treasury yields
- Typhoon Hagibis is expected to hit eastern Japan (including Tokyo) during the upcoming weekend, typhoon could be worst to hit Tokyo since the late 1950s
- Singapore to issue semi-annual monetary policy statement and Q3 advance GDP on Monday (Oct 14th)
Headlines/Economic Data
Australia/New Zealand
- ASX 200 opened +0.6%
- (NZ) New Zealand Sept Business Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 v 48.4 prior (third straight month of contraction)
- (NZ) New Zealand Aug Total Card Spending M/M: 0.6% v 1.3% prior; Retail Card Spending M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e
China/Hong Kong
- Shanghai Composite opened +0.2%, Hang Seng +1.1%
- (CN) China Vice Premier Liu told US business leaders yesterday that China is willing to reach agreement on matters that both sides care about and to prevent friction from further escalation – press
Japan
- Nikkei 225 opened +0.9%
- (JP) Japan Sept M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (JP) Bank of Japan Survey: 37% of households pushed forward purchases ahead of sales tax hike on Oct 1; 70% say they plan to withhold spending
Korea
- Kospi opened +1%
- (KR) South Korea Oct 1-10 Exports y/y: -8.5%; Chip Exports y/y: -27.2%
- (KR) South Korea sells KRW400B v KRW400B indicated in 50-year bonds: avg yield 1.50% v 1.395% prior
North America
- (US) Fed’s Mester (hawk, non-voter): expects the US economy will avoid a more serious turndown; recent readings on inflation expectations are mixed
- (US) Fed’s Kashkari (dove; non-voter): wrong to call planned balance sheet growth QE; case for half-percentage point (50bps) rate cut has waned
Europe
- (UK) UK set to propose ‘pared-down’ free trade agreement to end Brexit stalemate by end of Oct – Sky News
- (IE) UK’s Northern Ireland Min: developments today are really, really positive; seem to be on track to coming toward an accommodation
- (IR) Iran tanker said to be on fire near Saudi port of Jeddah; oil is spilling into Red Sea – Iran Press
Levels as of 1:20 ET
- Nikkei 225, +1.2%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Hang Seng +2.5%; Shanghai Composite +0.5%; Kospi+1.2%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.5%; Nasdaq100 +0.6%, Dax +0.2%
- EUR 1.1019-1.1003 ; JPY 108.13-107.84 ; AUD 0.6782-0.6752 ;NZD 0.6331-0.6316
- Gold -0.1% at $1,499/oz; Crude Oil +0.6% at $53.86/brl; Copper flat at $2.614/lb
