General Trend:
- Japanese banks rise on steeper yield curve
- Japan’s Q3 Tankan Large Manufacturer index slowed less than expected
- JGB Futures decline amid emergency margin call, Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIF) confirms plan to expand its investment in foreign bonds; US Treasury Futures also decline
- Japan sells 10-yr JGBs at multi-year low BTC, despite higher yield
- Japan’s sales tax was raised to 10% from 8%, as expected (effective today)
- Chinese President Xi opens the National Day military parade in Beijing
- China markets will be closed for the National Day/Golden Week holiday from Oct 1-7th, Hong Kong markets will be closed on Oct 1st and Oct 7th
- South Korean officials play down deflation concerns; Sept y/y CPI declined for the first time on record, BOK notes base effect
- RBA Gov Lowe expected to speak at RBA Board Dinner (7:20 PM AEST or 5:20 AM EST), follows earlier RBA rate cut
- Start of Q4 in focus
Headlines/Economic Data
Australia/New Zealand
- ASX 200 opened +0.1%
- (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) CUTS CASH RATE TARGET BY 25BPS TO 0.75%; AS EXPECTED (fresh record low): Reiterates reasonable to expect extended period of low rates
- (NZ) New Zealand Q3 Business Confidence: -35 v -34 prior (lowest level since March 2009); Domestic Trading Index: -11 v -5 prior (weakest level since September 2010) – NZIER business survey
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -1.1% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: -21.5% V -20.0%E
- (AU) Australia PM Morrison confirms Australia has always been ready to assist with investigation and confirmed readiness in conversation with Trump – responds to NYT article
- SUN.AU AMA Group to acquire Capital SMART Repairs and ACM Parts for combined A$420M
- AMA.AU Comments on acquisition of Suncorp’s Capital SMART Repairs and ACM Parts: to be double-digit EPS accretion in the first full-year of ownership, FY21; Guides FY20 to be in line with current analyst consensus
- (AU) AUSTRALIA SEP FINAL CBA PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.3 V 49.4E (Lowest reading since figure started)
- (AU) Australia Sep CoreLogic House Price Index m/m: 1.1% v 1.0% prior (largest increase since March 2017)
Japan
- Nikkei 225 opened +0.4%
- (JP) JAPAN Q3 TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEX: 5 V 1E (3rd consecutive decline, lowest since 2013); OUTLOOK SURVEY: 2 V 0E; LARGE ALL INDUSTRY CAPEX: 6.6% V 7.0%E
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Nishimura: Reiterates Japan has taken measures to prevent economy taking a hit from sales tax increase; need to consider downside risks carefully; Believe BOJ will decided monetary policy appropriately
- (JP) Reminder: Japan sales tax increase goes into effect today from 8% to 10%
- 5741.JP Announces restructuring plan: to cut 2,00 jobs (15% of global jobs) by FY22, to improve profitability by ¥21B by FY22
- (JP) Japan Sep Final PMI Manufacturing: 48.9 v 48.9 prelim (lowest reading since Feb, 5th consecutive month of contraction)
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: Will carefully watch impact of sales tax increase (goes into effect today); reiterates to take steps if necessary
- (JP) Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIF) said to expand investment in foreign bonds – Nikkei
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Nishimura: Reiterates Japan has taken measures to prevent economy taking a hit from sales tax increase; need to consider downside risks carefully
- (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.1T v ¥2.1T indicated in 0.1% 10-year JGBs: avg yield: -0.158% v -0.265% prior, bid to cover 3.42x (lowest since 2016) v 3.60x prior
Korea
- Kospi opened flat
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEP CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: -0.4% V -0.3%E (first annual decline on record)
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): CPI to rise above 1% after next year
- (KR) South Korea Sep Trade Balance $5.97B v $5.0Be; Exports Y/Y: -11.7% v -9.6%e (10 consecutive decline); Semiconductor exports Y/Y: -31.5% v -30.7% prior
- (KR) North Korea Ambassador: Vicious cycle of increased tension entirely attributable to US political and military provocations; US needs to comes to nuclear talks with new proposal, ideas – Yonhap
- (KR) South Korea Sep PMI Manufacturing: 48.0 v 49.0 prior
- 005930.KR To close its last smartphone factory in China – Korean press
China/Hong Kong
- Hang Seng opened closed; Shanghai Composite opened closed
- (CN) China military parade shows off new DF-41 a new long range intercontinental nuclear missile; also anti-ship missiles, next generation main battlefield tanks, advanced drone and unmanned underwater vehicles
- (CN) China President Xi: Must uphold path of peaceful development; must remain committed to long term stability of Hong Kong and Macau; reiterates will pursue a mutually beneficial strategy of opening up – 70th anniversary National Day address
- (CN) China President Xi will outline his vision of a strong China in grand National Day celebration; today will have one of the largest parades in its history marking the 70th anniversary of Communist Party rule
- (HK) Hong Kong Deputy leader Cheung: HK has has radical situation in recent months, HK has strong support from China
- (HK) Macau Sept Gaming Rev (MOP) 22.1B v 24.3B prior; Y/Y: +0.6% v +1.0%e v -8.6% prior
Other Asia
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank Chief Diokno: There will be more RRR cuts in my term
- (TH) Thailand Sept CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e (8-month low)
North America
- (US) DOJ affirms President Trump contacted other countries at AG Barr’s request in 2016 to gather information from other countries
- (US) House Intelligence, Foreign Affairs and Oversight and Reform panels subpoenaed President Trump personal lawyer, Giuliani, for documents on interactions with Ukraine as he assisted in efforts to have Ukraine investigate Trump political rival Biden – US press (update)
Europe
- (UK) PM Johnson reportedly to release his ‘final Brexit plan’ to EU leaders within 24 hours – UK’s Telegraph
Levels as of 01:20ET
- Hang Seng closed; Shanghai Composite closed; Kospi +0.4%; Nikkei225 +0.7%; ASX 200 +0.7%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.4%; Nasdaq100 +0.5%, Dax +0.2%; FTSE100 +0.1%
- EUR 1.0902-1.0885 ; JPY 108.29-108.04 ; AUD 0.6776-0.6722 ; NZD 0.6272-0.6236
- Commodity Futures: Gold -0.1% $1,472/oz; Crude Oil +0.9% at $54.55/brl; Copper -0.9% at $2.551/lb