EUR/USD recovered strongly after choppy fall from 1.1249 extended to 1.1051. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for extending the consolidation pattern from 1.1026. Upside should be limited by 1.1249 resistance to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.1051 will target 1.1026 low and below. However, sustained break of 1.1249 will have 55 day EMA taken out too. Stronger rise should then be seen to 1.1412 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1632) holds.
