USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9695 last week but rebounded since then, after forming a short term bottom. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week, for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 0.9863). Sustained break will target 0.9975 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9721 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9659 low instead.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. Nevertheless, break of 0.9975 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline from 1.0237. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
