Market movers ahead
- In the US, we will look out for any comments in speeches by FOMC members about what drove the decision on the June rate hike, which in our view was not justified by the data. On the data front, we get PMI figures and we continue to believe that the moderate growth will primarily be driven by the service sector.
- Consumer confidence stood at the highest level since 2007 in May. We expect it to keep increasing in June on the back of rising employment and fading political uncertainty.
- In China, we expect the recent increases in rates and yields are likely to feed into a slowdown in housing for the rest of the year and a moderation in house-price inflation.
- On Thursday, we expect Norges Bank to keep rates unchanged and remove its ‘easing bias’ from the interest rate path.
Global macro and market themes
- The Fed strikes a hawkish tone, hiking rates and setting out its balance sheet reduction…
- ..rating the tightening labour markets as more important than recent weak inflation prints.
- Further flattening of the US yield curve likely.
- We maintain our equity call of ‘sell-on-rallies’ near-term…
- ..as well as our tactical bearish EUR/USD trade recommendation.
- We see rising risk from China to the global outlook.
