President Trump’s address was high on rhetoric and light on detail, leaving the market underwhelmed.
The address to Congress was released a good hour before the main event this morning. Mr Trump followed it word for word with no surprises or add-ons leaving the street (and myself) with the feeling of being underwhelmed. Again the President was high on policy and rhetoric and light on details. Given the legislative agenda, the Houses of Congress are going to be very busy indeed over the next six months getting it all done. I suspect though that most of what has been announced are already built into the price of the USD today.
The S+P, Dow and Nasdaq are unchanged with the USD drifting ever so slightly higher against most of the majors as I guess it has become a case of no news is ever so slightly good news. Attention will now turn to Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday which should have more impact if she is hawkish. Over the last ten days, a plethora of other Governor’s have been upbeat and hawkish, and a follow-on by Mrs Yellen would put March’s FOMC unexpectedly “live.” This would almost certainly lead to another bout of USD strength.
Looking around the G-10 space today post-speech,
EUR/USD
Sitting at the session lows at 1.0555 as it continues it drift lower from New York. Euro has support at 1.0550 and 1.0530 with critical support at 1.0495.
Resistance is at 1.0590 and then stronger at 1.0630. Euro continues to drift aimlessly to the nuances of the USD as French political worries recede. (for now)
USD/JPY
Had rallied in New York as bond yields firmed and Trump’s tax plans circulated. There is definitely a hint of a short squeeze here as well as traders had nervously eyed key long-term support around 111.50 in the previous sessions.
USD/JPY sits at the top of its range in Asia this morning with resistance at 113.80 initially. Support appears at 112.75 intra-day.
GBP/USD
As Brexit D-Day approaches, GBP has remained capped on any rally towards the 1.2600 level. Today’s speech won’t affect that dynamic. GBP is trading 1.2370 at the moment with support at 1.2345 and then the 1.2250 area.
AUD/USD
Completely ignored the speech to remain around 7670 this morning. It has even shrugged off better than expected GDP this morning at +2.4% YoY as the resource rally digs Australia out of the hole.
Aud continues to be firmly anchored in the 7600/7740 range it has traded in all of February. Intra-day resistance lies at 7700. Bring a good book to read.
USD/CNH
Ignored better than expected Manufacturing PMI’s as general USD strength sees the pair trade to the top of its range at 6.8650. Yellen’s speech and the trajectory of U.S. interest rates seem likely to have a far greater effect on the CNH and EMFX in general then Mr.Trump for now.
USD/CNH remains mired in its 2-week range of 6.8400 to 6.8700 with eyes turned to Friday now to break the deadlock.
GOLD
The USD strength has weakened the hands of Gold bulls. A reduction in the levels of perceived risk around the world and the very extended speculative long positioning sees Gold eyeing support at 1242. A move through here could see more stop-loss selling emerge with the next support at the 1236 area on the short term charts.
Resistance intra-day is at the 1248 area.
Summary
Mr Trump’s highly anticipated speech was a highly scripted damp squib in the end. No news was good news, and this sees the USD slightly bid in Asia although, with so much built into the price, the longevity of the move into Europe is perhaps doubtful.
The highlight of the week now becomes Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday for signals as to whether March’s discounted FOMC meeting is in fact “live.”
